Oregon School Assessment

Adult BA+ and Student Poverty Both Matter

Two-factor model draft. Prepared: 2026-05-19.

Draft for review

Oregon schools in communities with more college-educated adults tend to have higher test proficiency. But schools also differ in the share of enrolled students experiencing poverty. This check asks whether adult BA+ is merely a stand-in for student poverty, or whether both measures carry distinct information.

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Short Answer

School poverty explains a large share of school-to-school proficiency differences, especially in ELA and Science. But adult BA+ does not disappear when student poverty is included in the same model. The cleaner reading is not "BA+ is the single dominant factor." It is: adult BA+ is a strong community-context signal, and school poverty is a strong enrolled-student hardship signal. The two overlap, but neither fully replaces the other.

0.597 ELA joint model R2 using BA+ and school poverty together.
0.513 Math joint model R2. BA+ and poverty are closer in unique strength here.
0.475 Science joint model R2, with school poverty adding the larger unique signal.

What We Modeled

The model is intentionally simple: Percent Proficient is predicted from two variables, ACS adult BA+ rate and ODE's school-sourced Students Experiencing Poverty measure. Rows are school-level aggregates for Total Population students in 2024-25, weighted by tested participants. The primary view excludes charter and virtual schools.

What Each Measure Adds After the Other

Bar chart showing added R2 from BA+ after poverty and poverty after BA+ for ELA, Math, and Science
Added R2 measures how much explanatory power one variable contributes after the other is already in the model. Poverty adds more unique signal in ELA and Science. BA+ remains meaningfully positive, especially in Math.

Primary Results

Subject Schools BA+ r Poverty r Joint R2 BA+ beta Poverty beta BA+ added R2 Poverty added R2
ELA 1,025 0.623 -0.751 0.597 0.235 -0.599 0.032 0.209
Math 999 0.641 -0.658 0.513 0.370 -0.419 0.080 0.102
Science 990 0.555 -0.668 0.475 0.219 -0.529 0.029 0.167

How to Read the Table

  • Correlation r is the simple weighted association before controls. BA+ is positive because higher BA+ is associated with higher proficiency. Poverty is negative because higher poverty is associated with lower proficiency.
  • Standardized beta compares each predictor on a common scale inside the same model. Larger absolute values indicate stronger unique association after the other predictor is held fixed.
  • Added R2 asks how much one measure improves the model after the other measure is already included.

Interpretation

Adult BA+ remains a robust indicator of community educational context, but school poverty often carries more unique explanatory signal in 2024-25 Oregon data. The right conclusion is not that one measure makes the other irrelevant. It is that statewide performance patterns are better described with both: one broad community-education measure and one enrolled-student hardship measure.

Caution: These are school-level observational associations, not causal estimates. BA+ is attached to school geography rather than individual students or exact attendance areas. Students Experiencing Poverty is closer to the enrolled school population, but it is still a school-level measure.

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