Simulation Lab guide

What it does

The Simulation Lab is a model-based interface for exploring how three factors (adult education, attendance, and income) relate to predicted school-level outcomes. It is useful when visual inspection alone cannot separate overlapping influences.

Current scope note: this interface uses the income-based model for continuity. Poverty-aware model checks are reported in the Statistical Findings and results overview pages.

Historical data note: the selectable 2018-19 Math data are a legacy comparison profile with fewer available fields than the current releases. Its model inputs pass bounded denominator, proficiency-rate, and grade-attendance checks, but it has not yet received comprehensive historical release certification.

Open Simulation Lab

Model behind the interface

• A school-level linear model weighted by the number of students with reported Level 1-4 scores.
• Pairwise interactions: education x attendance, education x income, attendance x income.
• Prediction and delta outputs include 95% uncertainty intervals.
• All outputs are associational summaries of aggregate data, not student-level causal effects.

How to read it

• Curves/Bars/Heatmap/Small multiples are alternate views of the same fitted model.
• Scenario prediction is the model estimate at your selected slider values.
• Scenario delta compares your scenario against baseline medians.
• Local sensitivity reports the approximate change in predicted outcome for a one-percentage-point increase in adult BA+ or regular attendance near the current scenario.
• If the delta is small relative to uncertainty, treat it as inconclusive.