Income, education, attendance, and school proficiency joint models
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Status: descriptive associational analysis; no coefficient is a causal effect.
Production source commit: 6c70d58d278d768a2b8d46dcdf4e7ddfbccc0a98
Academic year: 2024-2025
Approved SHA-256: {"english": "10828e0b0bb6a5f2794836f5a36e85f6949a58cb2b7a3a14529f303106b6f1a9", "math": "076e89da00f4117d6f49a9f279641484407947145d56445e751a3febaa185283", "science": "eec291f604325979fba71cbc352f401b5d46664d2e4e02ac9569d3fdb25f9839"}
Primary estimand: student-weighted association among ordinary ODE Regular elementary school sites.
Elementary eligibility is classified from observed Total Population tested-grade profiles across all three subjects (grades 3-5 only); the outcome is each subject's single official Total Population All Grades row.
Middle-school results are a labeled sensitivity only. High and combined-grade sites are excluded because a school-address tract is generally not a defensible catchment proxy.
Ordinary excludes charter, true virtual (but not Supplemental Virtual), and separately reviewed special-enrollment schools.
Outcome counts must satisfy integer L1+L2+L3+L4=scored and L3+L4=proficient. Scored students are the model weights.
BA is an ACS fraction; income is ACS median household income in dollars; SEP is percent.
SEP midpoint is estimated for left-censored intervals; lower endpoint, upper endpoint, and exact-only results are sensitivities.
Missingness is model-specific. Attendance models require tested_grade_rollup plus exact included/regular-attender counts and the rounded rate identity.
In-sample fit is separate from 20 repeated 5-fold school-row CV runs (fixed seed 20260910).
Bracketed p05-p95 values are descriptive ranges across fixed-seed repeats, not confidence intervals.
Results
- elementary_primary | English | income (as_reported): n=457, scored=84996, beta_context=0.065, beta_BA=0.455, beta_attendance=0.438, in_sample_R2=0.684, CV_R2_mean=0.677 (repeat p05-p95 0.673 to 0.680)
coverage: cross-subject profile=504, subject All Grades=504, ordinary=470, outcome-identity-valid=470, model-complete=457; missing BA=0, missing context=0, invalid/missing attendance=13
- elementary_primary | English | sep_percent (midpoint): n=457, scored=84996, beta_context=-0.502, beta_BA=0.259, beta_attendance=0.228, in_sample_R2=0.773, CV_R2_mean=0.768 (repeat p05-p95 0.765 to 0.770)
coverage: cross-subject profile=504, subject All Grades=504, ordinary=470, outcome-identity-valid=470, model-complete=457; missing BA=0, missing context=2, invalid/missing attendance=11
- elementary_primary | English | sep_percent (lower_endpoint): n=457, scored=84996, beta_context=-0.502, beta_BA=0.258, beta_attendance=0.228, in_sample_R2=0.772, CV_R2_mean=0.767 (repeat p05-p95 0.765 to 0.770)
coverage: cross-subject profile=504, subject All Grades=504, ordinary=470, outcome-identity-valid=470, model-complete=457; missing BA=0, missing context=2, invalid/missing attendance=11
- elementary_primary | English | sep_percent (upper_endpoint): n=457, scored=84996, beta_context=-0.501, beta_BA=0.260, beta_attendance=0.227, in_sample_R2=0.773, CV_R2_mean=0.768 (repeat p05-p95 0.765 to 0.770)
coverage: cross-subject profile=504, subject All Grades=504, ordinary=470, outcome-identity-valid=470, model-complete=457; missing BA=0, missing context=2, invalid/missing attendance=11
- elementary_primary | English | sep_percent (exact_only): n=452, scored=83818, beta_context=-0.500, beta_BA=0.257, beta_attendance=0.230, in_sample_R2=0.762, CV_R2_mean=0.756 (repeat p05-p95 0.753 to 0.759)
coverage: cross-subject profile=504, subject All Grades=504, ordinary=470, outcome-identity-valid=470, model-complete=452; missing BA=0, missing context=8, invalid/missing attendance=10
- elementary_primary | Math | income (as_reported): n=456, scored=84607, beta_context=0.088, beta_BA=0.430, beta_attendance=0.446, in_sample_R2=0.687, CV_R2_mean=0.680 (repeat p05-p95 0.677 to 0.683)
coverage: cross-subject profile=504, subject All Grades=503, ordinary=469, outcome-identity-valid=469, model-complete=456; missing BA=0, missing context=0, invalid/missing attendance=13
- elementary_primary | Math | sep_percent (midpoint): n=456, scored=84607, beta_context=-0.443, beta_BA=0.275, beta_attendance=0.267, in_sample_R2=0.754, CV_R2_mean=0.749 (repeat p05-p95 0.745 to 0.751)
coverage: cross-subject profile=504, subject All Grades=503, ordinary=469, outcome-identity-valid=469, model-complete=456; missing BA=0, missing context=2, invalid/missing attendance=11
- elementary_primary | Math | sep_percent (lower_endpoint): n=456, scored=84607, beta_context=-0.444, beta_BA=0.274, beta_attendance=0.267, in_sample_R2=0.754, CV_R2_mean=0.749 (repeat p05-p95 0.746 to 0.751)
coverage: cross-subject profile=504, subject All Grades=503, ordinary=469, outcome-identity-valid=469, model-complete=456; missing BA=0, missing context=2, invalid/missing attendance=11
- elementary_primary | Math | sep_percent (upper_endpoint): n=456, scored=84607, beta_context=-0.442, beta_BA=0.277, beta_attendance=0.267, in_sample_R2=0.754, CV_R2_mean=0.748 (repeat p05-p95 0.745 to 0.751)
coverage: cross-subject profile=504, subject All Grades=503, ordinary=469, outcome-identity-valid=469, model-complete=456; missing BA=0, missing context=2, invalid/missing attendance=11
- elementary_primary | Math | sep_percent (exact_only): n=451, scored=83429, beta_context=-0.441, beta_BA=0.272, beta_attendance=0.269, in_sample_R2=0.740, CV_R2_mean=0.735 (repeat p05-p95 0.732 to 0.737)
coverage: cross-subject profile=504, subject All Grades=503, ordinary=469, outcome-identity-valid=469, model-complete=451; missing BA=0, missing context=8, invalid/missing attendance=10
- elementary_primary | Science | income (as_reported): n=433, scored=28388, beta_context=0.110, beta_BA=0.487, beta_attendance=0.290, in_sample_R2=0.571, CV_R2_mean=0.561 (repeat p05-p95 0.555 to 0.566)
coverage: cross-subject profile=504, subject All Grades=472, ordinary=438, outcome-identity-valid=438, model-complete=433; missing BA=0, missing context=0, invalid/missing attendance=5
- elementary_primary | Science | sep_percent (midpoint): n=433, scored=28388, beta_context=-0.486, beta_BA=0.292, beta_attendance=0.137, in_sample_R2=0.660, CV_R2_mean=0.652 (repeat p05-p95 0.649 to 0.656)
coverage: cross-subject profile=504, subject All Grades=472, ordinary=438, outcome-identity-valid=438, model-complete=433; missing BA=0, missing context=1, invalid/missing attendance=4
- elementary_primary | Science | sep_percent (lower_endpoint): n=433, scored=28388, beta_context=-0.487, beta_BA=0.291, beta_attendance=0.137, in_sample_R2=0.660, CV_R2_mean=0.653 (repeat p05-p95 0.649 to 0.656)
coverage: cross-subject profile=504, subject All Grades=472, ordinary=438, outcome-identity-valid=438, model-complete=433; missing BA=0, missing context=1, invalid/missing attendance=4
- elementary_primary | Science | sep_percent (upper_endpoint): n=433, scored=28388, beta_context=-0.484, beta_BA=0.295, beta_attendance=0.137, in_sample_R2=0.659, CV_R2_mean=0.652 (repeat p05-p95 0.648 to 0.656)
coverage: cross-subject profile=504, subject All Grades=472, ordinary=438, outcome-identity-valid=438, model-complete=433; missing BA=0, missing context=1, invalid/missing attendance=4
- elementary_primary | Science | sep_percent (exact_only): n=427, scored=27909, beta_context=-0.486, beta_BA=0.287, beta_attendance=0.137, in_sample_R2=0.643, CV_R2_mean=0.635 (repeat p05-p95 0.630 to 0.638)
coverage: cross-subject profile=504, subject All Grades=472, ordinary=438, outcome-identity-valid=438, model-complete=427; missing BA=0, missing context=7, invalid/missing attendance=4
- middle_sensitivity | English | income (as_reported): n=188, scored=88459, beta_context=-0.079, beta_BA=0.478, beta_attendance=0.483, in_sample_R2=0.592, CV_R2_mean=0.570 (repeat p05-p95 0.558 to 0.581)
coverage: cross-subject profile=202, subject All Grades=202, ordinary=193, outcome-identity-valid=193, model-complete=188; missing BA=0, missing context=0, invalid/missing attendance=5
- middle_sensitivity | English | sep_percent (midpoint): n=188, scored=88459, beta_context=-0.417, beta_BA=0.216, beta_attendance=0.296, in_sample_R2=0.652, CV_R2_mean=0.634 (repeat p05-p95 0.627 to 0.643)
coverage: cross-subject profile=202, subject All Grades=202, ordinary=193, outcome-identity-valid=193, model-complete=188; missing BA=0, missing context=2, invalid/missing attendance=3
- middle_sensitivity | English | sep_percent (lower_endpoint): n=188, scored=88459, beta_context=-0.417, beta_BA=0.216, beta_attendance=0.296, in_sample_R2=0.652, CV_R2_mean=0.634 (repeat p05-p95 0.627 to 0.643)
coverage: cross-subject profile=202, subject All Grades=202, ordinary=193, outcome-identity-valid=193, model-complete=188; missing BA=0, missing context=2, invalid/missing attendance=3
- middle_sensitivity | English | sep_percent (upper_endpoint): n=188, scored=88459, beta_context=-0.417, beta_BA=0.216, beta_attendance=0.296, in_sample_R2=0.652, CV_R2_mean=0.634 (repeat p05-p95 0.627 to 0.643)
coverage: cross-subject profile=202, subject All Grades=202, ordinary=193, outcome-identity-valid=193, model-complete=188; missing BA=0, missing context=2, invalid/missing attendance=3
- middle_sensitivity | English | sep_percent (exact_only): n=188, scored=88459, beta_context=-0.417, beta_BA=0.216, beta_attendance=0.296, in_sample_R2=0.652, CV_R2_mean=0.634 (repeat p05-p95 0.627 to 0.643)
coverage: cross-subject profile=202, subject All Grades=202, ordinary=193, outcome-identity-valid=193, model-complete=188; missing BA=0, missing context=2, invalid/missing attendance=3
- middle_sensitivity | Math | income (as_reported): n=187, scored=87381, beta_context=-0.075, beta_BA=0.568, beta_attendance=0.461, in_sample_R2=0.691, CV_R2_mean=0.670 (repeat p05-p95 0.658 to 0.679)
coverage: cross-subject profile=202, subject All Grades=200, ordinary=192, outcome-identity-valid=192, model-complete=187; missing BA=0, missing context=0, invalid/missing attendance=5
- middle_sensitivity | Math | sep_percent (midpoint): n=187, scored=87381, beta_context=-0.415, beta_BA=0.309, beta_attendance=0.276, in_sample_R2=0.752, CV_R2_mean=0.738 (repeat p05-p95 0.732 to 0.742)
coverage: cross-subject profile=202, subject All Grades=200, ordinary=192, outcome-identity-valid=192, model-complete=187; missing BA=0, missing context=2, invalid/missing attendance=3
- middle_sensitivity | Math | sep_percent (lower_endpoint): n=187, scored=87381, beta_context=-0.415, beta_BA=0.309, beta_attendance=0.276, in_sample_R2=0.752, CV_R2_mean=0.738 (repeat p05-p95 0.732 to 0.742)
coverage: cross-subject profile=202, subject All Grades=200, ordinary=192, outcome-identity-valid=192, model-complete=187; missing BA=0, missing context=2, invalid/missing attendance=3
- middle_sensitivity | Math | sep_percent (upper_endpoint): n=187, scored=87381, beta_context=-0.415, beta_BA=0.309, beta_attendance=0.276, in_sample_R2=0.752, CV_R2_mean=0.738 (repeat p05-p95 0.732 to 0.742)
coverage: cross-subject profile=202, subject All Grades=200, ordinary=192, outcome-identity-valid=192, model-complete=187; missing BA=0, missing context=2, invalid/missing attendance=3
- middle_sensitivity | Math | sep_percent (exact_only): n=187, scored=87381, beta_context=-0.415, beta_BA=0.309, beta_attendance=0.276, in_sample_R2=0.752, CV_R2_mean=0.738 (repeat p05-p95 0.732 to 0.742)
coverage: cross-subject profile=202, subject All Grades=200, ordinary=192, outcome-identity-valid=192, model-complete=187; missing BA=0, missing context=2, invalid/missing attendance=3
- middle_sensitivity | Science | income (as_reported): n=188, scored=30960, beta_context=-0.028, beta_BA=0.484, beta_attendance=0.311, in_sample_R2=0.415, CV_R2_mean=0.381 (repeat p05-p95 0.365 to 0.395)
coverage: cross-subject profile=202, subject All Grades=197, ordinary=190, outcome-identity-valid=190, model-complete=188; missing BA=0, missing context=0, invalid/missing attendance=2
- middle_sensitivity | Science | sep_percent (midpoint): n=188, scored=30960, beta_context=-0.479, beta_BA=0.185, beta_attendance=0.154, in_sample_R2=0.511, CV_R2_mean=0.487 (repeat p05-p95 0.477 to 0.497)
coverage: cross-subject profile=202, subject All Grades=197, ordinary=190, outcome-identity-valid=190, model-complete=188; missing BA=0, missing context=1, invalid/missing attendance=1
- middle_sensitivity | Science | sep_percent (lower_endpoint): n=188, scored=30960, beta_context=-0.479, beta_BA=0.185, beta_attendance=0.154, in_sample_R2=0.511, CV_R2_mean=0.487 (repeat p05-p95 0.477 to 0.497)
coverage: cross-subject profile=202, subject All Grades=197, ordinary=190, outcome-identity-valid=190, model-complete=188; missing BA=0, missing context=1, invalid/missing attendance=1
- middle_sensitivity | Science | sep_percent (upper_endpoint): n=188, scored=30960, beta_context=-0.479, beta_BA=0.185, beta_attendance=0.154, in_sample_R2=0.511, CV_R2_mean=0.487 (repeat p05-p95 0.477 to 0.497)
coverage: cross-subject profile=202, subject All Grades=197, ordinary=190, outcome-identity-valid=190, model-complete=188; missing BA=0, missing context=1, invalid/missing attendance=1
- middle_sensitivity | Science | sep_percent (exact_only): n=188, scored=30960, beta_context=-0.479, beta_BA=0.185, beta_attendance=0.154, in_sample_R2=0.511, CV_R2_mean=0.487 (repeat p05-p95 0.477 to 0.497)
coverage: cross-subject profile=202, subject All Grades=197, ordinary=190, outcome-identity-valid=190, model-complete=188; missing BA=0, missing context=1, invalid/missing attendance=1
Machine-readable companion: income_education_attendance_joint_model_results.csv