Income, education, and school proficiency joint models
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Status: descriptive associational analysis; no coefficient is a causal effect.
Production source commit: 6c70d58d278d768a2b8d46dcdf4e7ddfbccc0a98
Academic year: 2024-2025
Approved SHA-256: {"english": "10828e0b0bb6a5f2794836f5a36e85f6949a58cb2b7a3a14529f303106b6f1a9", "math": "076e89da00f4117d6f49a9f279641484407947145d56445e751a3febaa185283", "science": "eec291f604325979fba71cbc352f401b5d46664d2e4e02ac9569d3fdb25f9839"}
Primary estimand: student-weighted association among ordinary ODE Regular elementary school sites.
Elementary eligibility is classified from observed Total Population tested-grade profiles across all three subjects (grades 3-5 only); the outcome is each subject's single official Total Population All Grades row.
Middle-school results are a labeled sensitivity only. High and combined-grade sites are excluded because a school-address tract is generally not a defensible catchment proxy.
Ordinary excludes charter, true virtual (but not Supplemental Virtual), and separately reviewed special-enrollment schools.
Outcome counts must satisfy integer L1+L2+L3+L4=scored and L3+L4=proficient. Scored students are the model weights.
BA is an ACS fraction; income is ACS median household income in dollars; SEP is percent.
SEP midpoint is estimated for left-censored intervals; lower endpoint, upper endpoint, and exact-only results are sensitivities.
Missingness is model-specific. Attendance models require tested_grade_rollup plus exact included/regular-attender counts and the rounded rate identity.
In-sample fit is separate from 20 repeated 5-fold school-row CV runs (fixed seed 20260910).
Bracketed p05-p95 values are descriptive ranges across fixed-seed repeats, not confidence intervals.
Results
- elementary_primary | English | income (as_reported): n=470, scored=86279, beta_context=0.209, beta_BA=0.577, beta_attendance=n/a, in_sample_R2=0.557, CV_R2_mean=0.551 (repeat p05-p95 0.549 to 0.554)
coverage: cross-subject profile=504, subject All Grades=504, ordinary=470, outcome-identity-valid=470, model-complete=470; missing BA=0, missing context=0, invalid/missing attendance=0
- elementary_primary | English | sep_percent (midpoint): n=468, scored=86205, beta_context=-0.649, beta_BA=0.273, beta_attendance=n/a, in_sample_R2=0.747, CV_R2_mean=0.744 (repeat p05-p95 0.741 to 0.745)
coverage: cross-subject profile=504, subject All Grades=504, ordinary=470, outcome-identity-valid=470, model-complete=468; missing BA=0, missing context=2, invalid/missing attendance=0
- elementary_primary | English | sep_percent (lower_endpoint): n=468, scored=86205, beta_context=-0.651, beta_BA=0.272, beta_attendance=n/a, in_sample_R2=0.747, CV_R2_mean=0.744 (repeat p05-p95 0.742 to 0.745)
coverage: cross-subject profile=504, subject All Grades=504, ordinary=470, outcome-identity-valid=470, model-complete=468; missing BA=0, missing context=2, invalid/missing attendance=0
- elementary_primary | English | sep_percent (upper_endpoint): n=468, scored=86205, beta_context=-0.647, beta_BA=0.276, beta_attendance=n/a, in_sample_R2=0.747, CV_R2_mean=0.743 (repeat p05-p95 0.741 to 0.745)
coverage: cross-subject profile=504, subject All Grades=504, ordinary=470, outcome-identity-valid=470, model-complete=468; missing BA=0, missing context=2, invalid/missing attendance=0
- elementary_primary | English | sep_percent (exact_only): n=462, scored=84800, beta_context=-0.648, beta_BA=0.269, beta_attendance=n/a, in_sample_R2=0.732, CV_R2_mean=0.727 (repeat p05-p95 0.723 to 0.729)
coverage: cross-subject profile=504, subject All Grades=504, ordinary=470, outcome-identity-valid=470, model-complete=462; missing BA=0, missing context=8, invalid/missing attendance=0
- elementary_primary | Math | income (as_reported): n=469, scored=85887, beta_context=0.239, beta_BA=0.550, beta_attendance=n/a, in_sample_R2=0.556, CV_R2_mean=0.549 (repeat p05-p95 0.545 to 0.554)
coverage: cross-subject profile=504, subject All Grades=503, ordinary=469, outcome-identity-valid=469, model-complete=469; missing BA=0, missing context=0, invalid/missing attendance=0
- elementary_primary | Math | sep_percent (midpoint): n=467, scored=85814, beta_context=-0.614, beta_BA=0.294, beta_attendance=n/a, in_sample_R2=0.719, CV_R2_mean=0.715 (repeat p05-p95 0.711 to 0.717)
coverage: cross-subject profile=504, subject All Grades=503, ordinary=469, outcome-identity-valid=469, model-complete=467; missing BA=0, missing context=2, invalid/missing attendance=0
- elementary_primary | Math | sep_percent (lower_endpoint): n=467, scored=85814, beta_context=-0.616, beta_BA=0.292, beta_attendance=n/a, in_sample_R2=0.720, CV_R2_mean=0.716 (repeat p05-p95 0.711 to 0.718)
coverage: cross-subject profile=504, subject All Grades=503, ordinary=469, outcome-identity-valid=469, model-complete=467; missing BA=0, missing context=2, invalid/missing attendance=0
- elementary_primary | Math | sep_percent (upper_endpoint): n=467, scored=85814, beta_context=-0.611, beta_BA=0.297, beta_attendance=n/a, in_sample_R2=0.718, CV_R2_mean=0.714 (repeat p05-p95 0.710 to 0.716)
coverage: cross-subject profile=504, subject All Grades=503, ordinary=469, outcome-identity-valid=469, model-complete=467; missing BA=0, missing context=2, invalid/missing attendance=0
- elementary_primary | Math | sep_percent (exact_only): n=461, scored=84411, beta_context=-0.613, beta_BA=0.287, beta_attendance=n/a, in_sample_R2=0.700, CV_R2_mean=0.695 (repeat p05-p95 0.694 to 0.697)
coverage: cross-subject profile=504, subject All Grades=503, ordinary=469, outcome-identity-valid=469, model-complete=461; missing BA=0, missing context=8, invalid/missing attendance=0
- elementary_primary | Science | income (as_reported): n=438, scored=28521, beta_context=0.166, beta_BA=0.578, beta_attendance=n/a, in_sample_R2=0.505, CV_R2_mean=0.496 (repeat p05-p95 0.494 to 0.499)
coverage: cross-subject profile=504, subject All Grades=472, ordinary=438, outcome-identity-valid=438, model-complete=438; missing BA=0, missing context=0, invalid/missing attendance=0
- elementary_primary | Science | sep_percent (midpoint): n=437, scored=28506, beta_context=-0.560, beta_BA=0.302, beta_attendance=n/a, in_sample_R2=0.646, CV_R2_mean=0.640 (repeat p05-p95 0.636 to 0.643)
coverage: cross-subject profile=504, subject All Grades=472, ordinary=438, outcome-identity-valid=438, model-complete=437; missing BA=0, missing context=1, invalid/missing attendance=0
- elementary_primary | Science | sep_percent (lower_endpoint): n=437, scored=28506, beta_context=-0.561, beta_BA=0.300, beta_attendance=n/a, in_sample_R2=0.646, CV_R2_mean=0.641 (repeat p05-p95 0.636 to 0.644)
coverage: cross-subject profile=504, subject All Grades=472, ordinary=438, outcome-identity-valid=438, model-complete=437; missing BA=0, missing context=1, invalid/missing attendance=0
- elementary_primary | Science | sep_percent (upper_endpoint): n=437, scored=28506, beta_context=-0.558, beta_BA=0.304, beta_attendance=n/a, in_sample_R2=0.645, CV_R2_mean=0.640 (repeat p05-p95 0.635 to 0.643)
coverage: cross-subject profile=504, subject All Grades=472, ordinary=438, outcome-identity-valid=438, model-complete=437; missing BA=0, missing context=1, invalid/missing attendance=0
- elementary_primary | Science | sep_percent (exact_only): n=431, scored=28027, beta_context=-0.558, beta_BA=0.297, beta_attendance=n/a, in_sample_R2=0.629, CV_R2_mean=0.623 (repeat p05-p95 0.620 to 0.626)
coverage: cross-subject profile=504, subject All Grades=472, ordinary=438, outcome-identity-valid=438, model-complete=431; missing BA=0, missing context=7, invalid/missing attendance=0
- middle_sensitivity | English | income (as_reported): n=193, scored=88661, beta_context=0.062, beta_BA=0.600, beta_attendance=n/a, in_sample_R2=0.414, CV_R2_mean=0.389 (repeat p05-p95 0.371 to 0.401)
coverage: cross-subject profile=202, subject All Grades=202, ordinary=193, outcome-identity-valid=193, model-complete=193; missing BA=0, missing context=0, invalid/missing attendance=0
- middle_sensitivity | English | sep_percent (midpoint): n=191, scored=88568, beta_context=-0.607, beta_BA=0.216, beta_attendance=n/a, in_sample_R2=0.601, CV_R2_mean=0.583 (repeat p05-p95 0.567 to 0.591)
coverage: cross-subject profile=202, subject All Grades=202, ordinary=193, outcome-identity-valid=193, model-complete=191; missing BA=0, missing context=2, invalid/missing attendance=0
- middle_sensitivity | English | sep_percent (lower_endpoint): n=191, scored=88568, beta_context=-0.607, beta_BA=0.216, beta_attendance=n/a, in_sample_R2=0.601, CV_R2_mean=0.583 (repeat p05-p95 0.567 to 0.591)
coverage: cross-subject profile=202, subject All Grades=202, ordinary=193, outcome-identity-valid=193, model-complete=191; missing BA=0, missing context=2, invalid/missing attendance=0
- middle_sensitivity | English | sep_percent (upper_endpoint): n=191, scored=88568, beta_context=-0.607, beta_BA=0.216, beta_attendance=n/a, in_sample_R2=0.601, CV_R2_mean=0.583 (repeat p05-p95 0.567 to 0.591)
coverage: cross-subject profile=202, subject All Grades=202, ordinary=193, outcome-identity-valid=193, model-complete=191; missing BA=0, missing context=2, invalid/missing attendance=0
- middle_sensitivity | English | sep_percent (exact_only): n=191, scored=88568, beta_context=-0.607, beta_BA=0.216, beta_attendance=n/a, in_sample_R2=0.601, CV_R2_mean=0.583 (repeat p05-p95 0.567 to 0.591)
coverage: cross-subject profile=202, subject All Grades=202, ordinary=193, outcome-identity-valid=193, model-complete=191; missing BA=0, missing context=2, invalid/missing attendance=0
- middle_sensitivity | Math | income (as_reported): n=192, scored=87581, beta_context=0.059, beta_BA=0.686, beta_attendance=n/a, in_sample_R2=0.528, CV_R2_mean=0.502 (repeat p05-p95 0.486 to 0.515)
coverage: cross-subject profile=202, subject All Grades=200, ordinary=192, outcome-identity-valid=192, model-complete=192; missing BA=0, missing context=0, invalid/missing attendance=0
- middle_sensitivity | Math | sep_percent (midpoint): n=190, scored=87489, beta_context=-0.593, beta_BA=0.310, beta_attendance=n/a, in_sample_R2=0.706, CV_R2_mean=0.692 (repeat p05-p95 0.684 to 0.699)
coverage: cross-subject profile=202, subject All Grades=200, ordinary=192, outcome-identity-valid=192, model-complete=190; missing BA=0, missing context=2, invalid/missing attendance=0
- middle_sensitivity | Math | sep_percent (lower_endpoint): n=190, scored=87489, beta_context=-0.593, beta_BA=0.310, beta_attendance=n/a, in_sample_R2=0.706, CV_R2_mean=0.692 (repeat p05-p95 0.684 to 0.699)
coverage: cross-subject profile=202, subject All Grades=200, ordinary=192, outcome-identity-valid=192, model-complete=190; missing BA=0, missing context=2, invalid/missing attendance=0
- middle_sensitivity | Math | sep_percent (upper_endpoint): n=190, scored=87489, beta_context=-0.593, beta_BA=0.310, beta_attendance=n/a, in_sample_R2=0.706, CV_R2_mean=0.692 (repeat p05-p95 0.684 to 0.699)
coverage: cross-subject profile=202, subject All Grades=200, ordinary=192, outcome-identity-valid=192, model-complete=190; missing BA=0, missing context=2, invalid/missing attendance=0
- middle_sensitivity | Math | sep_percent (exact_only): n=190, scored=87489, beta_context=-0.593, beta_BA=0.310, beta_attendance=n/a, in_sample_R2=0.706, CV_R2_mean=0.692 (repeat p05-p95 0.684 to 0.699)
coverage: cross-subject profile=202, subject All Grades=200, ordinary=192, outcome-identity-valid=192, model-complete=190; missing BA=0, missing context=2, invalid/missing attendance=0
- middle_sensitivity | Science | income (as_reported): n=190, scored=30988, beta_context=0.054, beta_BA=0.540, beta_attendance=n/a, in_sample_R2=0.333, CV_R2_mean=0.304 (repeat p05-p95 0.287 to 0.317)
coverage: cross-subject profile=202, subject All Grades=197, ordinary=190, outcome-identity-valid=190, model-complete=190; missing BA=0, missing context=0, invalid/missing attendance=0
- middle_sensitivity | Science | sep_percent (midpoint): n=189, scored=30977, beta_context=-0.563, beta_BA=0.181, beta_attendance=n/a, in_sample_R2=0.493, CV_R2_mean=0.471 (repeat p05-p95 0.456 to 0.485)
coverage: cross-subject profile=202, subject All Grades=197, ordinary=190, outcome-identity-valid=190, model-complete=189; missing BA=0, missing context=1, invalid/missing attendance=0
- middle_sensitivity | Science | sep_percent (lower_endpoint): n=189, scored=30977, beta_context=-0.563, beta_BA=0.181, beta_attendance=n/a, in_sample_R2=0.493, CV_R2_mean=0.471 (repeat p05-p95 0.456 to 0.485)
coverage: cross-subject profile=202, subject All Grades=197, ordinary=190, outcome-identity-valid=190, model-complete=189; missing BA=0, missing context=1, invalid/missing attendance=0
- middle_sensitivity | Science | sep_percent (upper_endpoint): n=189, scored=30977, beta_context=-0.563, beta_BA=0.181, beta_attendance=n/a, in_sample_R2=0.493, CV_R2_mean=0.471 (repeat p05-p95 0.456 to 0.485)
coverage: cross-subject profile=202, subject All Grades=197, ordinary=190, outcome-identity-valid=190, model-complete=189; missing BA=0, missing context=1, invalid/missing attendance=0
- middle_sensitivity | Science | sep_percent (exact_only): n=189, scored=30977, beta_context=-0.563, beta_BA=0.181, beta_attendance=n/a, in_sample_R2=0.493, CV_R2_mean=0.471 (repeat p05-p95 0.456 to 0.485)
coverage: cross-subject profile=202, subject All Grades=197, ordinary=190, outcome-identity-valid=190, model-complete=189; missing BA=0, missing context=1, invalid/missing attendance=0
Machine-readable companion: income_education_joint_model_results.csv